“However, the natural blocking mechanism could dissolve during the third week of the month and allow any tropical storm to move northward, in which case interests in South Florida and the Keys may need to stay vigilant.” Should the tropical disturbance ...

Consensus of the computer forecast models show that the robust Tropical Disturbance south of the Dominican Republic will develop and eventually organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm.

The National Hurricane Center said Tropical Storm Rafael formed in the Caribbean on Monday, and is forecast to intensify into a hurricane as it heads north toward the Gulf of Mexico. As of the NHC’s 7 p.